(CNA, Taipei, 5th report) China's first half GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, which is considered a good performance amid the impact of tariffs, but the public sentiment is generally not good. Economists point out that this is because the nominal GDP growth rate is only 4.3%, and the structure is differentiated, the distribution is uneven, and China's economic situation is more severe than imagined. WeChat official account 'Chief Economist Forum' published an analysis of China's first half economic data by Zhao Jian, Director of the Xijing Research Institute on the 4th. Zhao Jian said that the first half data showed that the impact of the tariff war was lower than expected, and exports continue to support half of the economy; the 'Two Heavy and Two New' policy has helped to turn the situation around; various government bonds and local bonds were issued in advance, and major projects were pushed as much as possible, completing 60% of the annual task in the first half, collectively contributing to the 5.3% economic growth rate. As for why the micro-level public sentiment is significantly different from the macro-level data? He pointed out that although the actual GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half, the nominal growth rate was only 4.3%. As of the second quarter, China's GDP deflator index (the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP) has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, and the index in the second quarter declined further compared to the first quarter, reflecting significant deflationary pressure on the economy. Nominal GDP refers to GDP calculated at current market prices during a specific period, which includes factors of price levels. The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine quarters, indicating that prices have been declining for more than two years. Zhao Jian pointed out that when prices generally decline and deflation occurs, the actual debt burden doubles, leading to a large number of bankruptcies and layoffs, exacerbating insufficient demand and excess supply. Zhao Jian also pointed out that micro-level public sentiment depends on the individual's industry, field, and age group. The impact of falling prices is greater on private enterprises, small businesses, and downstream enterprises than on state-owned enterprises, large enterprises, and upstream enterprises; retired people receiving a fixed pension fare better than recent graduates, and the impact is most severe on the middle-class with higher debt burdens. As industries benefiting the middle class, such as real estate, tutoring, and digital platforms, enter a contraction period due to cycles and policy reasons, the white-collar middle class has also been downgraded, especially those with high debt, who will bear the pain of social transformation twice over. Zhao Jian said that the same 5.3% GDP growth rate, the flow of policy water is very uneven, and the formed money mainly concentrates in large state-owned enterprises, the government, banks, and a few individuals. However, during the period of universal growth in the past, it relied on industries like real estate that could benefit more than 50 industries. Zhao Jian finally pointed out that behind the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half are many policy overruns, and the risk of the Sino-US tariff war is also deferred. If policies start to ease and the Sino-US tariff war ceasefire period expires, the pressure to stabilize growth in the second half will be extremely huge. If the real estate market cannot be stabilized again, the economy in the second half will have little improvement in total volume. He believes that the Chinese economic situation is actually very urgent, and more powerful policies need to be introduced in the real estate and consumption sectors in the second half to smoothly complete this year's tasks, not only to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5%, but also to ensure that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is close to 2%, which is also the official target set at the beginning of the year, and at least not too low.