Scientists Warn of Legal and Trade Risks if Methane Target is Weakened

Climate scientists and legal experts have issued a strong warning to New Zealand’s government, urging it not to weaken the country’s methane reduction target. The call comes in the wake of a landmark ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which stated that countries can be held legally responsible for damages caused by their greenhouse gas emissions.

The letter, sent to Climate Change Minister Simon Watts and copied to the Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister, and Trade Minister, outlines the potential legal and economic consequences of lowering the methane target. It highlights that reducing the target could breach New Zealand’s obligations under the Paris Agreement and its free trade agreements with the United Kingdom and the European Union.

According to the letter, reducing the methane target would place New Zealand at odds with global climate commitments and could expose the country to trade sanctions. It also warns that such a move could place New Zealand in the same category as countries like Russia and the United States, which have weakened their emissions reduction targets since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2016.

"Any such decision could have significant reputational, trade, and economic consequences for New Zealand, as our major trading partners continue to push forward on their Paris Agreement commitments," the letter states.

Lawyers for Climate Action, the group that sent the letter, emphasized the importance of the recent ICJ ruling. They noted that it provides clear legal guidance on how countries should implement the Paris Agreement. They warned that weakening the methane target could undermine the agreement’s objectives and lead to trade sanctions from the EU.

"That's why this matters so much and the reason we wrote last week is because for the first time, we had authorised guidance from the world's top court on what it might mean for a party to effectively implement Paris, what it might mean to take an action that materially affects the object and purpose of Paris," said Jessica Palairet, CEO of Lawyers for Climate Action.

Palairet also pointed to a previous letter from 26 international climate scientists, who accused the government of "ignoring scientific evidence." She said this shows the deep concern felt within the scientific community about the potential weakening of New Zealand’s methane targets.

"This isn't a decision that's being made on the basis of science. It's a decision that's being made on the basis of politics to try and weaken New Zealand's ambition on methane in the face of international independent scientists advising the government not to do this," she said.

The Green Party has also expressed concerns about the National-ACT coalition’s intentions to review the methane target. Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the government’s refusal to rule out weakening the target is "deeply concerning." She argued that the move would signal a reduction in climate ambition and could place the burden on other sectors of the economy and households.

Minister Watts said the government had not yet made any decisions on the methane target and would have more to say soon. He emphasized the need for a scientifically based and practical approach to ensure that New Zealand’s agricultural sector is not negatively impacted.

As the debate continues, the scientific and legal communities are watching closely, with the potential for significant consequences if the government were to proceed with weakening the methane target.