New Zealand at 'Significant Risk' of Missing 2050 Climate Target
New Zealand at 'Significant Risk' of Missing 2050 Climate Target
New Zealand is at a 'significant risk' of missing its 2050 climate target, according to the Climate Change Commission's latest emissions reduction monitoring report. While the country has made steady progress in reducing climate pollution, the report warns that current government actions are not sufficient to ensure long-term success in meeting future climate goals.
The report highlights that New Zealand is on track to meet its first emissions budget, which spans from 2022 to 2025, partly due to changes in the way emissions are measured. However, the risk of missing targets from 2026 onwards has increased over the past year, and the government's current plans are deemed inadequate for the long-term.
One of the key risks identified is the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the gas sector. The report emphasizes that urgent action is needed before 2029, as many projects require long lead times to reduce emissions effectively. For example, the construction of a new electric furnace at NZ Steel took three years to complete, underscoring the importance of timely planning.
Jo Hendy, the chief executive of the Climate Change Commission, noted that while progress has been made up to this year, the risk of straying off course has increased. Real emissions—excluding the carbon absorbed by forests—fell steadily from 2019 to 2023, with 2023 being the lowest level of real emissions since 1999. However, emissions from electricity generation rose in 2023 due to increased fossil fuel use by power generators during a period of low hydro lake levels.
Hendy emphasized the importance of building on current momentum and implementing the next steps recommended by the commission. She stated that the current policy settings are not enough to deliver the emissions reductions that New Zealand has committed to, and without these steps, the country risks falling further off track.
The commission recommended several measures, including strengthening the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) by updating the supply and price of carbon, to provide companies with more confidence to invest in emissions reduction. It also suggested policies to accelerate the shift to renewable energy, cleaner transport, and low-emissions farming. Additionally, the commission recommended re-evaluating the generous freebies given to some large emitters and finding alternative ways to protect manufacturing jobs from carbon pricing.
Hendy also highlighted the potential benefits for households if the government capitalizes on the declining costs of solar energy, electric vehicles, and batteries. She warned that falling short of climate targets could lead to higher costs, lost economic opportunities, and increased disruption for communities.
The report also noted that advancements in technology for reducing methane emissions in the agricultural sector are nearing market readiness. However, the commission warned that recent government actions, such as introducing road user charges for electric vehicles, re-opening offshore oil and gas exploration, and winding down the New Zealand Green Investment Finance fund, could increase carbon emissions.
On the positive side, the commission acknowledged existing government plans to update ETS settings, confirm rail capabilities for new Cook Strait ferries, and streamline the approval process for renewable electricity generation. These steps are seen as beneficial for the climate.
The commission's assessment of risk has increased in the past year, particularly for the third emissions budget (2031–2035). It warned that the current government policies are not sufficient to meet the third emissions budget, and further action is required. If the government revises its carbon budgets to align with original intentions, the country would need to make additional emissions reductions of 15 million tonnes in the second emissions budget and 18 million tonnes in the third.
In conclusion, the report underscores the urgency of taking immediate action to ensure that New Zealand remains on track to meet its climate targets. It calls for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to emissions reduction, emphasizing the need for stronger policies, increased investment in renewable energy, and a commitment to long-term sustainability.
