New Zealand Agriculture Enjoying Blockbuster Comeback

Over the past 12 months, New Zealand’s agriculture sector has staged a remarkable resurgence, with farmers, growers, and agribusinesses reaping improved returns across key commodities such as dairy, beef, and kiwifruit. This turnaround has been driven by market optimism, banking support, and favorable global conditions.

Primary Exports Reach New Heights

Primary exports are set to reach nearly $60 billion for the year ending June 30, 2025—a 12% increase from $53.3 billion the previous year. This marks a “blockbuster year” for New Zealand’s agricultural economy, with farm confidence notably recovering.

Dairy: Balanced Markets and Record Payouts

New Zealand’s dairy sector is experiencing strong performance, with global supply remaining in balance and farmgate milk prices hitting record levels for the 2024–25 season. Dairy production has increased by 8% year-on-year, and export volumes have returned to pre-COVID levels. With favorable market fundamentals, the sector is well-positioned to maintain momentum into 2026.

Kiwifruit: Back to Gold Standard

After two challenging seasons, the kiwifruit sector has bounced back, with export volumes recovering and Zespri forecasting a record crop. Export returns for kiwifruit are surging toward $4 billion, a major driver behind horticulture’s overall 19% growth in primary sector exports this year. Improved orchard management and better fruit quality have been central to this turnaround.

Beef: Rebounding with Strong Momentum

The beef sector is also showing strong signs of recovery, with export volumes rebounding to pre-COVID levels and market fundamentals remaining favorable. Growers are reinvesting confidently, expanding canopy, and adopting precision horticulture tools to lift productivity. With strong offshore demand from Asia and Europe, the sector is once again leading New Zealand horticulture into a prosperous future.

Currency and Costs: A Delicate Balance

While global uncertainty continues to influence input costs, New Zealand’s exporters are benefiting from a favorable exchange rate environment. A weaker New Zealand dollar has bolstered export competitiveness, lifting farmgate returns across dairy, beef, and horticulture. This currency tailwind has helped offset rising costs for key inputs like fuel, fertiliser, and imported machinery.

Market Sentiment: Confidence Returns to the Paddock

After several years of volatility, confidence is returning across New Zealand’s rural sector. Farmers and growers are feeling the uplift from stronger returns, a more stable policy environment, and improved seasonal conditions. According to the latest Tracta AgriPulse survey, overall sentiment has turned positive for the first time in two years.

Risks Ahead: Navigating Headwinds in 2025–26

While the outlook for New Zealand agriculture is positive, a few key risks warrant close attention over the coming year. Climate variability remains a concern, with recent weather patterns highlighting the growing unpredictability of rainfall and temperature across regions. Input cost volatility and geopolitical uncertainties could also impact export flows and margins.

Looking Ahead: A Confident Path Forward

New Zealand’s agricultural sector enters the next 12 months with real momentum and a growing sense of purpose. Global demand for safe, high-quality, sustainably produced food is intensifying, and New Zealand remains well placed to deliver it. With strong commodity prices, improving financial conditions, and a renewed focus on long-term sustainability, the sector has the opportunity to grow both value and resilience.