According to a new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, New Zealand First has experienced a significant rise, surpassing Act for the first time. The poll, conducted between July 2 and 6, indicates that the party has climbed to 9.8%, a jump of 3.7 percentage points compared to the June poll. This movement has placed Winston Peters’ party ahead of both the Greens and Act, which had previously held higher positions.

The Green Party maintained its position at 9.4%, with a slight increase of 1.2 points, while Act remained unchanged at 9.1%. Meanwhile, National has seen a modest rise of 0.4 points, reaching 33.9%, overtaking Labour, which dropped 3.2 points to 31.6%. This shift has reversed the previous trend where Labour had more support than National in the June poll.

Te Pāti Māori saw a small increase of 0.2 points, reaching 3.5%. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 people via landline and mobile phone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%. This data suggests a potential coalition of National (42), NZ First (12), and Act (11) could form a government with 65 seats, while a Labour, Green, and Te Pāti Māori coalition could only muster 57 seats.

In terms of preferred Prime Ministers, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has narrowed the gap with National’s Christopher Luxon to just 0.1 points. Hipkins increased by 1.1 points to 19.6%, while Luxon dropped 0.6 points to 19.7%. Winston Peters remained the third-most-preferred at 9.3%, up 1.3 points from the last poll.

The poll also revealed that the cost of living has become the top issue for respondents, rising 3.5 points to 21.6%. Health was the third most important issue. This aligns with previous reports that more voters believe Labour is the best party to manage the cost of living.

Adam Pearse, the Deputy Political Editor of the NZ Herald, has been covering New Zealand politics since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate and the Herald in Auckland. He is part of the Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington.